Rainfall Analysis

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    ONSET Characteristics

Median values of monsoon cropping season onset dates and rainfall amount, duration and average rainfall per day
No. of Years Onset Period Monsoon Rainfall
    Onset date Amount (mm) Duration (Days) Avg.ppt (mm/day)
        Median Values  
31 All onsets (01 June - 25 July) 13-Jun 557.9 131 5

Three Groupings of Seasons
10 Early ( 01 June - 9 June) 5-Jun 744.35 134 5.65
11 Middle: (10 June - 15 June) 13-Jun 508.2 128 4.2
10 Late:(16 June - 25 July) 24-Jan 549.15 120 5.65

 

Ranges  of monsoon cropping season onset dates and rainfall amount, duration and average rainfall per day
No. of Years Onset Period Monsoon Rainfall
    Amount (mm) Duration (Days) Avg.ppt (mm/day)
      Ranges of Values  
31 All onsets (01 June - 25 July) 306.5-1017.2 80-161 2.6-6.5
Three Groupings of Seasons
10 Early ( 01 June - 9 June) 353-1017.2 120-161 2.7-6.5
11 Middle: (10 June - 15 June) 306.5-838 82-155 2.6-5.4
10 Late:(16 June - 25 July) 308.1-853.4 80-161 3.0-6.5

    Probabilities of rainy season duration with respect to onset

Probability of Precipitation
Onset Triad 10% 20% 30% 50% 70% 90%
             
Early 1016.2 984.2 860.6 742.7 599.1 353
             
Middle 832 725.7 590.1 508.2 356.8 305.5
             
Late 849.4 813.9 796 545.9 460.3 308.1

 Probability of Duration

Onset Triad 10% 20% 30% 50% 70% 90%
             
Early 160 156 153 136 125 120
             
Middle 153 151 138 128 110 85
             
Late 161 155 138 121 96 80

    Dry and wet spells analysis at Hyderabad

Initial and Conditional Probabilities of Daily Rainfall for Different Weeks at Hayatnagar
      Limit = 2.5 mm
WEEK INITIAL PROBABILITIES  CONDITIONALPROBABILITIES
P(W) P(D) P(W/W) P(D/W) P(D/D) P(W/D)
1 1 100 0 100 100 1
2 3 98 20 80 98 2
3 3 97 0 100 97 3
4 1 99 50 50 100 1
5 0 100 0 0 100 0
6 2 98 0 100 98 2
7 3 98 33 67 99 2
8 3 98 33 67 99 2
9 0 100 0 0 100 0
10 1 99 0 100 99 1
11 2 99 25 75 99 1
12 3 98 50 50 99 2
13 3 97 29 71 98 2
14 4 96 33 67 97 3
15 4 96 0 100 95 5
16 6 94 27 73 95 5
17 7 93 12 88 94 7
18 7 93 7 93 93 7
19 7 93 17 83 94 6
20 10 90 20 80 91 9
21 7 93 8 92 93 7
22 12 88 18 82 89 11
23 16 84 19 81 84 16
24 27 73 31 69 75 26
25 20 80 41 59 85 15
26 25 75 46 54 82 18
27 35 65 46 54 71 29
28 26 74 33 67 76 24
29 32 68 52 48 78 23
30 30 70 41 59 75 25
31 30 70 40 60 75 25
32 29 71 43 57 77 23
33 34 67 49 52 74 26
34 22 78 27 73 80 20
35 26 74 40 60 78 22
36 22 78 42 58 85 16
37 24 76 43 57 82 18
38 30 70 56 44 80 20
39 24 76 42 58 82 18
40 28 72 47 53 80 20
41 20 80 49 51 88 12
42 13 87 48 52 93 7
43 16 84 44 56 89 11
44 14 86 41 59 91 9
45 8 92 45 55 96 4
46 9 91 41 59 94 7
47 4 96 30 70 97 3
48 2 98 20 80 99 2
49 2 98 33 67 99 2
50 2 98 20 80 99 2
51 1 99 0 100 99 1
52 1 99 0 100 99 1

      Limit = 5 mm

WEEK INITIAL PROBABILITIES  CONDITIONALPROBABILITIES
P(W) P(D) P(W/W) P(D/W) P(D/D) P(W/D)
1 1 100 0 100 100 1
2 1 100 0 100 100 1
3 3 97 0 100 97 3
4 1 100 0 100 100 1
5 0 100 0 0 100 0
6 2 99 0 100 99 2
7 1 99 0 100 99 1
8 3 98 40 60 99 2
9 0 100 0 0 100 0
10 1 99 0 100 99 1
11 2 99 25 75 99 1
12 3 98 50 50 99 2
13 3 98 33 67 99 2
14 3 97 33 67 98 2
15 3 98 0 100 98 3
16 5 95 0 100 94 6
17 4 96 17 83 96 4
18 6 94 0 100 94 6
19 5 95 0 100 95 5
20 7 93 13 87 94 6
21 5 95 13 88 95 5
22 9 91 22 78 92 8
23 12 88 21 79 89 11
24 21 79 28 72 81 19
25 14 86 29 71 89 11
26 19 81 47 53 87 13
27 24 76 37 63 81 20
28 18 82 26 74 84 16
29 20 80 38 63 85 15
30 24 76 34 66 79 21
31 25 75 36 64 80 20
32 21 79 44 57 85 15
33 24 76 44 57 82 19
34 15 85 22 78 87 14
35 22 78 40 60 83 17
36 17 83 31 69 86 14
37 16 84 38 62 88 12
38 24 76 44 57 82 19
39 17 83 33 67 87 13
40 23 77 46 54 83 17
41 16 84 42 58 89 11
42 12 88 44 56 93 7
43 12 88 36 64 91 9
44 10 90 19 81 91 9
45 5 95 27 73 96 4
46 7 93 46 54 95 5
47 2 98 20 80 99 2
48 2 99 0 100 99 2
49 2 98 33 67 99 2
50 2 99 0 100 99 2
51 1 100 0 100 100 1
52 1 99 0 100 99 1

      Limit = 10 mm

WEEK INITIAL PROBABILITIES  CONDITIONALPROBABILITIES
P(W) P(D) P(W/W) P(D/W) P(D/D) P(W/D)
1 1 100 0 100 100 1
2 1 100 0 100 100 1
3 2 98 0 100 98 2
4 1 100 0 100 100 1
5 0 100 0 0 100 0
6 1 99 0 100 99 1
7 1 99 0 100 99 1
8 2 98 25 75 99 2
9 0 100 0 0 100 0
10 1 99 0 100 99 1
11 2 99 25 75 99 1
12 3 98 50 50 99 2
13 2 99 0 100 99 2
14 1 99 0 100 99 1
15 2 98 0 100 98 2
16 2 98 0 100 98 2
17 3 97 13 88 97 3
18 4 96 0 100 96 4
19 3 97 0 100 96 4
20 3 98 14 86 98 2
21 3 97 0 100 97 3
22 7 93 17 83 94 7
23 7 93 17 83 94 6
24 15 85 26 74 87 13
25 9 91 12 88 91 9
26 12 88 24 76 90 10
27 15 85 19 81 86 15
28 11 89 20 80 90 10
29 12 88 9 91 88 12
30 14 86 23 77 88 12
31 16 84 28 73 87 14
32 15 85 38 62 89 12
33 17 83 39 61 87 13
34 9 91 14 86 91 9
35 11 89 24 76 90 10
36 10 90 18 82 91 9
37 10 90 24 76 92 8
38 15 85 44 56 90 10
39 9 91 17 83 92 8
40 18 82 33 67 85 15
41 11 89 29 71 91 9
42 8 92 32 68 94 6
43 9 91 35 65 94 7
44 7 93 21 79 94 6
45 2 98 0 100 98 2
46 4 96 33 67 97 3
47 1 99 0 100 99 1
48 2 99 0 100 99 2
49 2 99 50 50 99 1
50 1 100 0 100 100 1
51 1 100 0 100 100 1
52 0 100 0 100 100 0

 

Weekly Conditional Probabilities of Spells of Consecutive Dry and Wet days at Hayatnagar

    Limit = 2.5 mm

WEEK Consecutive Dry day Probabilities Consecutive Wet day Probabilities
P(3D) P(3D/D) P(3D/W) P(3W) P(3W/W) P(3W/D)
1 99 99 99 0 0 0
2 94 94 77 0 1 0
3 91 91 94 0 0 0
4 98 99 50 0 13 0
5 100 100 0 0 0 0
6 94 94 96 0 0 0
7 95 96 65 0 4 0
8 95 96 65 0 4 0
9 100 100 0 0 0 0
10 97 97 98 0 0 0
11 97 97 74 0 2 0
12 95 96 49 1 13 0
13 93 94 69 0 2 0
14 90 91 63 1 4 0
15 87 87 91 0 0 0
16 84 85 65 1 2 0
17 82 82 77 0 0 0
18 79 79 80 0 0 0
19 82 82 73 0 1 0
20 75 76 67 0 1 0
21 80 80 79 0 0 0
22 70 71 65 0 1 0
23 59 60 57 1 1 1
24 40 41 38 3 3 3
25 57 61 42 3 7 3
26 51 55 36 5 10 4
27 33 36 27 8 10 6
28 43 44 39 3 4 3
29 41 47 29 9 14 6
30 40 43 33 5 7 4
31 39 42 33 5 6 4
32 42 45 34 5 8 4
33 36 40 28 8 11 6
34 50 51 47 2 2 1
35 46 48 37 4 6 4
36 56 60 42 4 7 3
37 51 55 38 4 8 3
38 45 52 28 10 18 6
39 51 55 39 4 7 3
40 46 51 34 6 10 4
41 62 68 40 5 12 3
42 76 81 45 3 11 2
43 66 70 44 3 9 2
44 71 75 48 2 7 2
45 85 89 51 2 9 1
46 79 82 52 2 7 1
47 91 92 66 0 3 0
48 95 96 78 0 1 0
49 95 96 65 0 4 0
50 95 96 78 0 1 0
51 97 97 98 0 0 0
52 96 96 97 0 0 0
    Limit = 5 mm
WEEK Consecutive Dry day Probabilities Consecutive Wet day Probabilities
P(3D) P(3D/D) P(3D/W) P(3W) P(3W/W) P(3W/D)
1 99 99 99 0 0 0
2 99 99 99 0 0 0
3 91 91 94 0 0 0
4 99 99 99 0 0 0
5 100 100 0 0 0 0
6 96 96 97 0 0 0
7 97 97 98 0 0 0
8 95 96 58 0 6 0
9 100 100 0 0 0 0
10 97 97 98 0 0 0
11 97 97 74 0 2 0
12 95 96 49 1 13 0
13 95 96 65 0 4 0
14 93 94 64 0 4 0
15 93 93 95 0 0 0
16 84 84 89 0 0 0
17 89 89 77 0 1 0
18 83 82 88 0 0 0
19 86 85 90 0 0 0
20 82 82 76 0 0 0
21 85 85 79 0 0 0
22 77 78 67 0 1 0
23 70 71 63 1 1 1
24 52 54 48 2 2 2
25 68 70 56 1 2 1
26 62 67 40 4 11 3
27 50 52 41 3 5 3
28 58 59 52 1 2 1
29 58 61 45 3 5 2
30 47 49 41 3 4 3
31 48 51 41 3 5 3
32 57 62 41 4 8 3
33 50 54 38 5 8 4
34 64 65 59 1 1 1
35 54 57 41 4 6 3
36 62 64 52 2 3 1
37 65 69 48 2 6 2
38 50 54 38 5 8 4
39 62 65 50 2 4 2
40 54 58 38 5 10 4
41 67 72 46 3 8 2
42 77 81 48 2 9 1
43 72 74 52 2 5 1
44 74 75 67 0 1 0
45 88 89 68 0 2 0
46 84 87 49 2 10 1
47 95 96 78 0 1 0
48 96 96 97 0 0 0
49 95 96 65 0 4 0
50 96 96 97 0 0 0
51 99 99 99 0 0 0
52 97 97 98 0 0 0
    Limit = 10 mm
WEEK Consecutive Dry day Probabilities Consecutive Wet day Probabilities
P(3D) P(3D/D) P(3D/W) P(3W) P(3W/W) P(3W/D)
1 99 99 99 0 0 0
2 99 99 99 0 0 0
3 94 94 96 0 0 0
4 99 99 99 0 0 0
5 100 100 0 0 0 0
6 97 97 98 0 0 0
7 97 97 98 0 0 0
8 95 96 73 0 2 0
9 100 100 0 0 0 0
10 97 97 98 0 0 0
11 97 97 74 0 2 0
12 95 96 49 1 13 0
13 96 96 97 0 0 0
14 97 97 98 0 0 0
15 94 94 96 0 0 0
16 94 94 96 0 0 0
17 92 93 83 0 0 0
18 88 88 92 0 0 0
19 90 90 93 0 0 0
20 94 94 82 0 0 0
21 91 91 94 0 0 0
22 81 82 73 0 1 0
23 82 82 73 0 1 0
24 64 65 56 1 2 1
25 75 75 73 0 0 0
26 71 73 61 1 1 1
27 62 62 59 1 1 1
28 73 73 65 0 1 0
29 68 68 70 0 0 0
30 66 67 59 1 1 1
31 63 65 54 1 2 1
32 66 69 49 2 6 2
33 63 66 46 3 6 2
34 75 76 71 0 0 0
35 72 73 62 1 1 1
36 75 76 68 0 1 0
37 76 77 64 1 1 1
38 69 72 45 3 9 2
39 76 77 69 0 1 0
40 60 62 49 2 4 2
41 74 76 59 1 3 1
42 81 83 61 1 3 1
43 80 82 57 1 4 1
44 83 84 70 0 1 0
45 94 94 96 0 0 0
46 90 91 63 0 4 0
47 97 97 98 0 0 0
48 96 96 97 0 0 0
49 97 97 49 0 13 0
50 99 99 99 0 0 0
51 99 99 99 0 0 0
52 99 99 99 0 0 0

 

Weekly Conditional Probabilities of Spells of Consecutive Dry and Wet days at Hayatnagar

    Limit = 2.5 mm

WEEK Consecutive Dry day Probabilities Consecutive Wet day Probabilities
P(5D) P(5D/D) P(5D/W) P(5W) P(5W/W) P(5W/D)
1 98 98 98 0 0 0
2 90 90 74 0 0 0
3 86 86 88 0 0 0
4 97 98 49 0 3 0
5 100 100 0 0 0 0
6 91 90 92 0 0 0
7 92 93 63 0 0 0
8 92 93 63 0 0 0
9 100 100 0 0 0 0
10 95 95 96 0 0 0
11 95 95 72 0 0 0
12 92 93 47 0 3 0
13 89 90 66 0 0 0
14 84 86 59 0 0 0
15 79 79 83 0 0 0
16 76 77 59 0 0 0
17 71 72 68 0 0 0
18 68 68 69 0 0 0
19 72 72 64 0 0 0
20 63 63 56 0 0 0
21 68 68 68 0 0 0
22 56 56 52 0 0 0
23 42 42 41 0 0 0
24 22 23 21 0 0 0
25 41 44 30 1 1 0
26 34 37 25 1 2 1
27 16 18 14 2 2 1
28 25 26 23 0 0 0
29 25 28 17 2 4 2
30 23 24 19 1 1 1
31 22 23 19 1 1 1
32 25 27 20 1 1 1
33 20 22 15 2 3 2
34 32 32 30 0 0 0
35 28 30 23 1 1 1
36 40 43 30 1 1 1
37 34 37 26 1 1 1
38 29 33 18 3 6 2
39 34 36 26 1 1 1
40 30 33 22 1 2 1
41 48 53 31 1 3 1
42 66 70 39 1 3 0
43 52 55 34 1 2 0
44 59 62 40 0 1 0
45 79 82 47 0 2 0
46 69 72 45 0 1 0
47 87 88 63 0 0 0
48 92 93 75 0 0 0
49 92 93 63 0 0 0
50 92 93 75 0 0 0
51 95 95 96 0 0 0
52 94 94 95 0 0 0
    Limit = 5 mm
WEEK Consecutive Dry day Probabilities Consecutive Wet day Probabilities
P(5D) P(5D/D) P(5D/W) P(5W) P(5W/W) P(5W/D)
1 98 98 98 0 0 0
2 98 98 98 0 0 0
3 86 86 88 0 0 0
4 98 98 98 0 0 0
5 100 100 0 0 0 0
6 93 93 94 0 0 0
7 95 95 96 0 0 0
8 92 93 56 0 1 0
9 100 100 0 0 0 0
10 95 95 96 0 0 0
11 95 95 72 0 0 0
12 92 93 47 0 3 0
13 92 93 63 0 0 0
14 89 90 61 0 0 0
15 88 88 90 0 0 0
16 75 75 79 0 0 0
17 82 83 72 0 0 0
18 73 72 77 0 0 0
19 77 77 81 0 0 0
20 72 72 67 0 0 0
21 77 77 71 0 0 0
22 66 67 57 0 0 0
23 56 56 50 0 0 0
24 35 35 31 0 0 0
25 53 55 44 0 0 0
26 48 51 31 1 2 1
27 32 34 27 0 1 0
28 41 42 37 0 0 0
29 41 44 32 0 1 0
30 29 30 25 0 1 0
31 31 32 26 0 1 0
32 42 45 30 1 2 1
33 34 36 25 1 2 1
34 48 49 44 0 0 0
35 37 39 28 1 1 0
36 46 48 38 0 0 0
37 51 53 37 0 1 0
38 34 36 25 1 2 1
39 47 49 38 0 0 0
40 37 40 26 1 2 1
41 54 57 37 1 1 0
42 67 70 42 1 2 0
43 59 61 43 0 1 0
44 61 61 55 0 0 0
45 81 83 63 0 0 0
46 76 79 44 0 2 0
47 92 93 75 0 0 0
48 93 93 94 0 0 0
49 92 93 63 0 0 0
50 93 93 94 0 0 0
51 98 98 98 0 0 0
52 96 96 97 0 0 0
    Limit = 10 mm
WEEK Consecutive Dry day Probabilities Consecutive Wet day Probabilities
P(5D) P(5D/D) P(5D/W) P(5W) P(5W/W) P(5W/D)
1 98 98 98 0 0 0
2 98 98 98 0 0 0
3 90 90 92 0 0 0
4 98 98 98 0 0 0
5 100 100 0 0 0 0
6 95 95 96 0 0 0
7 95 95 96 0 0 0
8 92 93 71 0 0 0
9 100 100 0 0 0 0
10 95 95 96 0 0 0
11 95 95 72 0 0 0
12 92 93 47 0 3 0
13 93 93 94 0 0 0
14 95 95 96 0 0 0
15 90 90 92 0 0 0
16 91 90 92 0 0 0
17 88 88 79 0 0 0
18 81 81 85 0 0 0
19 84 84 87 0 0 0
20 90 90 79 0 0 0
21 86 86 89 0 0 0
22 71 72 64 0 0 0
23 72 72 64 0 0 0
24 48 49 42 0 0 0
25 62 62 60 0 0 0
26 58 59 50 0 0 0
27 45 46 43 0 0 0
28 59 60 53 0 0 0
29 52 52 54 0 0 0
30 51 52 45 0 0 0
31 47 48 41 0 0 0
32 52 54 38 0 1 0
33 48 50 35 0 1 0
34 63 63 59 0 0 0
35 59 59 50 0 0 0
36 62 63 57 0 0 0
37 64 65 54 0 0 0
38 55 58 36 1 2 0
39 64 65 58 0 0 0
40 44 45 35 0 0 0
41 61 63 49 0 0 0
42 72 74 54 0 0 0
43 70 72 50 0 1 0
44 73 74 62 0 0 0
45 90 90 92 0 0 0
46 85 86 59 0 0 0
47 95 95 96 0 0 0
48 93 93 94 0 0 0
49 95 95 48 0 3 0
50 98 98 98 0 0 0
51 98 98 98 0 0 0
52 98 98 98 0 0 0

 

Weekly Conditional Probabilities of Spells of Consecutive Dry and Wet days at Hayatnagar

    Limit = 2.5 mm

WEEK Consecutive Dry day Probabilities Consecutive Wet day Probabilities
P(7D) P(7D/D) P(7D/W) P(7W) P(7W/W) P(7W/D)
1 97 97 97 0 0 0
2 86 87 71 0 0 0
3 81 81 83 0 0 0
4 96 97 49 0 1 0
5 100 100 0 0 0 0
6 87 87 89 0 0 0
7 89 90 61 0 0 0
8 89 90 61 0 0 0
9 100 100 0 0 0 0
10 93 93 94 0 0 0
11 93 93 71 0 0 0
12 89 90 46 0 1 0
13 86 87 63 0 0 0
14 79 80 55 0 0 0
15 72 72 75 0 0 0
16 68 69 53 0 0 0
17 62 63 59 0 0 0
18 58 58 59 0 0 0
19 63 64 57 0 0 0
20 52 53 46 0 0 0
21 59 59 58 0 0 0
22 44 45 41 0 0 0
23 30 30 29 0 0 0
24 12 13 12 0 0 0
25 30 31 22 0 0 0
26 23 25 17 0 0 0
27 8 9 7 0 1 0
28 15 15 13 0 0 0
29 15 17 10 1 1 1
30 13 14 11 0 0 0
31 12 13 10 0 0 0
32 15 16 12 0 0 0
33 11 12 8 0 1 0
34 20 21 19 0 0 0
35 17 18 14 0 0 0
36 29 31 21 0 0 0
37 23 25 17 0 0 0
38 19 21 12 1 2 1
39 23 24 17 0 0 0
40 19 21 14 0 1 0
41 38 41 24 0 1 0
42 57 61 34 0 1 0
43 41 43 27 0 0 0
44 48 51 33 0 0 0
45 73 76 44 0 0 0
46 61 63 39 0 0 0
47 82 83 60 0 0 0
48 89 90 73 0 0 0
49 90 90 61 0 0 0
50 89 90 73 0 0 0
51 93 93 94 0 0 0
52 91 91 92 0 0 0
    Limit = 5 mm
WEEK Consecutive Dry day Probabilities Consecutive Wet day Probabilities
P(7D) P(7D/D) P(7D/W) P(7W) P(7W/W) P(7W/D)
1 97 97 97 0 0 0
2 97 97 97 0 0 0
3 81 81 83 0 0 0
4 97 97 97 0 0 0
5 100 100 0 0 0 0
6 90 90 91 0 0 0
7 93 93 94 0 0 0
8 89 90 55 0 0 0
9 100 100 0 0 0 0
10 93 93 94 0 0 0
11 93 93 71 0 0 0
12 89 90 46 0 1 0
13 89 90 61 0 0 0
14 86 87 59 0 0 0
15 84 84 86 0 0 0
16 67 67 71 0 0 0
17 76 77 67 0 0 0
18 64 64 68 0 0 0
19 69 69 73 0 0 0
20 63 63 58 0 0 0
21 69 69 64 0 0 0
22 56 57 48 0 0 0
23 44 45 40 0 0 0
24 23 23 21 0 0 0
25 42 43 35 0 0 0
26 36 39 24 0 1 0
27 21 22 17 0 0 0
28 29 29 26 0 0 0
29 30 31 23 0 0 0
30 18 19 16 0 0 0
31 19 21 16 0 0 0
32 31 33 22 0 0 0
33 22 24 17 0 0 0
34 36 36 33 0 0 0
35 25 27 19 0 0 0
36 34 35 29 0 0 0
37 39 41 29 0 0 0
38 22 24 17 0 0 0
39 35 37 28 0 0 0
40 26 28 18 0 0 0
41 43 46 29 0 0 0
42 58 61 36 0 0 0
43 49 50 35 0 0 0
44 50 50 45 0 0 0
45 75 77 58 0 0 0
46 69 71 40 0 0 0
47 89 90 73 0 0 0
48 90 90 91 0 0 0
49 90 90 61 0 0 0
50 90 90 91 0 0 0
51 97 97 97 0 0 0
52 94 94 95 0 0 0
    Limit = 10 mm
WEEK Consecutive Dry day Probabilities Consecutive Wet day Probabilities
P(7D) P(7D/D) P(7D/W) P(7W) P(7W/W) P(7W/D)
1 97 97 97 0 0 0
2 97 97 97 0 0 0
3 87 87 89 0 0 0
4 97 97 97 0 0 0
5 100 100 0 0 0 0
6 93 93 94 0 0 0
7 93 93 94 0 0 0
8 90 90 69 0 0 0
9 100 100 0 0 0 0
10 93 93 94 0 0 0
11 93 93 71 0 0 0
12 89 90 46 0 1 0
13 90 90 91 0 0 0
14 93 93 94 0 0 0
15 87 87 89 0 0 0
16 87 87 89 0 0 0
17 83 83 75 0 0 0
18 75 75 78 0 0 0
19 78 78 81 0 0 0
20 86 87 76 0 0 0
21 81 81 83 0 0 0
22 62 63 56 0 0 0
23 63 64 57 0 0 0
24 36 37 31 0 0 0
25 51 51 50 0 0 0
26 47 47 40 0 0 0
27 33 33 31 0 0 0
28 48 48 43 0 0 0
29 40 40 42 0 0 0
30 39 40 35 0 0 0
31 35 36 30 0 0 0
32 41 43 30 0 0 0
33 36 38 26 0 0 0
34 52 53 49 0 0 0
35 48 48 41 0 0 0
36 52 52 47 0 0 0
37 54 55 46 0 0 0
38 45 47 29 0 0 0
39 54 54 49 0 0 0
40 32 33 26 0 0 0
41 51 52 40 0 0 0
42 63 65 47 0 0 0
43 61 63 43 0 0 0
44 65 66 55 0 0 0
45 87 87 88 0 0 0
46 80 81 55 0 0 0
47 93 93 94 0 0 0
48 90 90 91 0 0 0
49 93 93 47 0 1 0
50 97 97 97 0 0 0
51 97 97 97 0 0 0
52 97 97 97 0 0 0

 

Probabilities of Consecutive Dry and Wet Weeks at Hayatnagar

    Limit = 5 mm

WEEK Consecutive Dry Week Probabilities Consecutive Wet Week Probabilities
P(1D) P(2D) P(3D) P(1W) P(2W) P(3W)
1 96 93 76 4 0 0
2 97 79 76 3 0 0
3 83 79 79 17 0 0
4 97 97 87 3 0 0
5 100 90 86 0 0 0
6 90 86 80 10 7 2
7 90 83 83 10 3 0
8 90 90 84 10 0 0
9 100 93 86 0 0 0
10 93 86 80 7 0 0
11 93 86 76 7 3 0
12 90 79 70 10 0 0
13 90 79 73 10 3 3
14 86 79 50 14 10 4
15 83 52 37 17 7 3
16 62 45 31 38 14 6
17 69 48 33 31 14 3
18 66 45 32 35 7 3
19 72 52 38 28 14 3
20 66 48 26 35 7 1
21 76 41 18 24 3 3
22 62 28 5 38 28 22
23 38 7 3 62 48 29
24 21 10 2 79 48 31
25 41 7 1 59 38 31
26 28 3 1 72 59 49
27 17 3 2 83 69 52
28 17 10 2 83 62 53
29 31 7 1 69 59 44
30 17 3 1 83 62 42
31 24 7 3 76 52 41
32 31 14 7 69 55 39
33 28 14 4 72 52 38
34 35 10 3 66 48 35
35 28 7 1 72 52 32
36 28 3 1 72 45 36
37 31 10 6 69 55 40
38 24 14 4 76 55 41
39 35 10 7 66 48 32
40 28 17 13 72 48 26
41 41 31 22 59 31 21
42 59 41 21 41 28 11
43 55 28 22 45 17 7
44 55 45 30 45 17 4
45 72 48 43 28 7 2
46 69 62 57 31 7 0
47 86 79 73 14 0 0
48 93 86 76 7 3 0
49 90 79 76 10 0 0
50 90 86 80 10 0 0
51 97 90 0 3 0 0
52 93 0 0 7 0 0
    Limit = 10 mm
WEEK Consecutive Dry Week Probabilities Consecutive Wet Week Probabilities
P(1D) P(2D) P(3D) P(1W) P(2W) P(3W)
1 96 93 83 4 0 0
2 97 86 83 3 0 0
3 90 86 86 10 0 0
4 97 97 90 3 0 0
5 100 93 90 0 0 0
6 93 90 83 7 3 2
7 93 86 86 7 3 0
8 90 90 84 10 0 0
9 100 93 86 0 0 0
10 93 86 80 7 0 0
11 93 86 76 7 3 0
12 90 79 73 10 0 0
13 90 83 76 10 3 2
14 90 83 66 10 7 0
15 86 69 58 14 0 0
16 83 69 52 17 3 1
17 83 62 47 17 7 1
18 72 55 41 28 3 1
19 79 59 42 21 7 0
20 72 52 32 28 0 0
21 79 48 23 21 3 2
22 66 31 10 35 21 14
23 45 14 6 55 38 19
24 31 14 4 69 35 18
25 48 14 4 52 28 22
26 38 10 2 62 48 35
27 24 3 3 76 55 43
28 24 17 10 76 59 46
29 35 21 10 66 52 41
30 35 17 6 66 52 28
31 31 10 4 69 38 29
32 41 17 12 59 45 25
33 31 21 8 69 38 27
34 52 21 10 48 35 20
35 35 17 7 66 38 21
36 45 17 6 55 31 20
37 41 14 8 59 38 24
38 35 21 8 66 41 26
39 45 17 9 55 35 19
40 38 21 13 62 35 12
41 48 31 23 52 17 9
42 66 48 31 35 17 7
43 66 41 35 35 14 1
44 62 52 39 38 3 1
45 86 66 60 14 3 0
46 76 69 64 24 0 0
47 93 86 80 7 0 0
48 93 86 83 7 0 0
49 93 90 87 7 0 0
50 97 93 90 3 0 0
51 97 93 0 3 0 0
52 97 0 0 3 0 0
    Limit = 15 mm
WEEK Consecutive Dry Week Probabilities Consecutive Wet Week Probabilities
P(1D) P(2D) P(3D) P(1W) P(2W) P(3W)
1 100 97 90 0 0 0
2 97 90 86 3 0 0
3 93 90 90 7 0 0
4 97 97 93 3 0 0
5 100 97 93 0 0 0
6 97 93 87 3 0 0
7 97 90 90 3 3 0
8 90 90 90 10 0 0
9 100 100 93 0 0 0
10 100 93 86 0 0 0
11 93 86 76 7 3 0
12 90 79 79 10 0 0
13 90 90 77 10 3 0
14 97 83 73 3 0 0
15 86 76 67 14 0 0
16 90 79 67 10 3 1
17 86 72 60 14 3 1
18 83 69 60 17 3 1
19 83 72 60 17 7 0
20 83 69 44 17 0 0
21 86 55 36 14 0 0
22 69 45 19 31 10 5
23 66 28 13 35 17 7
24 45 21 8 55 21 6
25 55 21 6 45 14 11
26 52 14 6 48 38 26
27 24 10 5 76 52 33
28 35 17 9 66 41 29
29 41 21 9 59 41 30
30 38 17 7 62 45 24
31 35 14 9 66 35 28
32 45 28 20 55 45 17
33 38 28 17 62 24 17
34 66 41 19 35 24 12
35 52 24 10 48 24 11
36 48 21 9 52 24 15
37 48 21 12 52 31 18
38 41 24 10 59 35 21
39 48 21 12 52 31 15
40 41 24 18 59 28 9
41 55 41 34 45 14 9
42 72 59 38 28 17 6
43 69 45 38 31 10 0
44 66 55 45 35 0 0
45 90 72 66 10 3 0
46 79 72 70 21 0 0
47 93 90 83 7 0 0
48 97 90 86 3 0 0
49 93 90 87 7 0 0
50 97 93 90 3 0 0
51 97 93 0 3 0 0
52 97 0 0 3 0 0

 

Probabilities of getting atleast a given no.of Consecutive Dry and Wet days at Hayatnagar

    Limit = 2.5 mm

WEEK Consecutive Dry days Probabilities Consecutive Wet days Probabilities
P(3D) P(5D) P(7D) P(3W) P(5W) P(7W)
1 99 98 97 0 0 0
2 94 90 87 1 0 0
3 91 86 81 0 0 0
4 99 98 97 13 3 1
5 100 100 100 0 0 0
6 94 90 87 0 0 0
7 96 93 90 4 0 0
8 96 93 90 4 0 0
9 100 100 100 0 0 0
10 97 95 93 0 0 0
11 97 95 93 2 0 0
12 96 93 90 13 3 1
13 94 90 87 2 0 0
14 91 86 80 4 0 0
15 87 79 72 0 0 0
16 85 77 69 2 0 0
17 82 72 63 0 0 0
18 79 68 58 0 0 0
19 82 72 64 1 0 0
20 76 63 53 1 0 0
21 80 68 59 0 0 0
22 71 56 45 1 0 0
23 60 42 30 1 0 0
24 41 23 13 3 0 0
25 61 44 31 7 1 0
26 55 37 25 10 2 0
27 36 18 9 10 2 1
28 44 26 15 4 0 0
29 47 28 17 14 4 1
30 43 24 14 7 1 0
31 42 23 13 6 1 0
32 45 27 16 8 1 0
33 40 22 12 11 3 1
34 51 32 21 2 0 0
35 48 30 18 6 1 0
36 60 43 31 7 1 0
37 55 37 25 8 1 0
38 52 33 21 18 6 2
39 55 36 24 7 1 0
40 51 33 21 10 2 1
41 68 53 41 12 3 1
42 81 70 61 11 3 1
43 70 55 43 9 2 0
44 75 62 51 7 1 0
45 89 82 76 9 2 0
46 82 72 63 7 1 0
47 92 88 83 3 0 0
48 96 93 90 1 0 0
49 96 93 90 4 0 0
50 96 93 90 1 0 0
51 97 95 93 0 0 0
52 96.1 93.6 91.2 0 0 0
    Limit = 5 mm
WEEK Consecutive Dry days Probabilities Consecutive Wet days Probabilities
P(3D) P(5D) P(7D) P(3W) P(5W) P(7W)
1 99 98 97 0 0 0
2 99 98 97 0 0 0
3 91 86 81 0 0 0
4 99 98 97 0 0 0
5 100 100 100 0 0 0
6 96 93 90 0 0 0
7 97 95 93 0 0 0
8 96 93 90 6 1 0
9 100 100 100 0 0 0
10 97 95 93 0 0 0
11 97 95 93 2 0 0
12 96 93 90 13 3 1
13 96 93 90 4 0 0
14 94 90 87 4 0 0
15 93 88 84 0 0 0
16 84 75 67 0 0 0
17 89 83 77 1 0 0
18 82 72 64 0 0 0
19 85 77 69 0 0 0
20 82 72 63 0 0 0
21 85 77 69 0 0 0
22 78 67 57 1 0 0
23 71 56 45 1 0 0
24 54 35 23 2 0 0
25 70 55 43 2 0 0
26 67 51 39 11 2 1
27 52 34 22 5 1 0
28 59 42 29 2 0 0
29 61 44 31 5 1 0
30 49 30 19 4 1 0
31 51 32 21 5 1 0
32 62 45 33 8 2 0
33 54 36 24 8 2 0
34 65 49 36 1 0 0
35 57 39 27 6 1 0
36 64 48 35 3 0 0
37 69 53 41 6 1 0
38 54 36 24 8 2 0
39 65 49 37 4 0 0
40 58 40 28 10 2 0
41 72 57 46 8 1 0
42 81 70 61 9 2 0
43 74 61 50 5 1 0
44 75 61 50 1 0 0
45 89 83 77 2 0 0
46 87 79 71 10 2 0
47 96 93 90 1 0 0
48 96 93 90 0 0 0
49 96 93 90 4 0 0
50 96 93 90 0 0 0
51 99 98 97 0 0 0
52 97 96 94 0 0 0
    Limit = 10 mm
WEEK Consecutive Dry days Probabilities Consecutive Wet days Probabilities
P(3D) P(5D) P(7D) P(3W) P(5W) P(7W)
1 99 98 97 0 0 0
2 99 98 97 0 0 0
3 94 90 87 0 0 0
4 99 98 97 0 0 0
5 100 100 100 0 0 0
6 97 95 93 0 0 0
7 97 95 93 0 0 0
8 96 93 90 2 0 0
9 100 100 100 0 0 0
10 97 95 93 0 0 0
11 97 95 93 2 0 0
12 96 93 90 13 3 1
13 96 93 90 0 0 0
14 97 95 93 0 0 0
15 94 90 87 0 0 0
16 94 90 87 0 0 0
17 93 88 83 0 0 0
18 88 81 75 0 0 0
19 90 84 78 0 0 0
20 94 90 87 0 0 0
21 91 86 81 0 0 0
22 82 72 63 1 0 0
23 82 72 64 1 0 0
24 65 49 37 2 0 0
25 75 62 51 0 0 0
26 73 59 47 1 0 0
27 62 46 33 1 0 0
28 73 60 48 1 0 0
29 68 52 40 0 0 0
30 67 52 40 1 0 0
31 65 48 36 2 0 0
32 69 54 43 6 1 0
33 66 50 38 6 1 0
34 76 63 53 0 0 0
35 73 59 48 1 0 0
36 76 63 52 1 0 0
37 77 65 55 1 0 0
38 72 58 47 9 2 0
39 77 65 54 1 0 0
40 62 45 33 4 0 0
41 76 63 52 3 0 0
42 83 74 65 3 0 0
43 82 72 63 4 1 0
44 84 74 66 1 0 0
45 94 90 87 0 0 0
46 91 86 81 4 0 0
47 97 95 93 0 0 0
48 96 93 90 0 0 0
49 97 95 93 13 3 1
50 99 98 97 0 0 0
51 99 98 97 0 0 0
52 99 98 97 0 0 0

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